“How long will it take to get ready for a 100-miler?”
Someone asked me that just last week – but I have a version of that conversation almost every day.
“Hey, Will. I really want to (run a 100-miler, run a marathon, run a sub 25min 5k, squat my body weight…). How long do you think it will take?”
My answer: I have no idea.
My other answer: It depends.
Both of which I realize are unhelpful and probably frustrating.
The human brain is wired for certainty because with certainty comes predictability and with predictability comes survival.
And at the end of the day, that’s all our brain wants us to do.
Survive.
So it’s pretty easy for advertisers to take advantage of this system and make a ton of money claiming to help people “lose 30 pounds in 30 days.”
Human beings love to know three things.
1 – Start date.
2 – End date.
3 – Result.
Unfortunately, it’s rarely that simple.
Very often, you’ll have no idea how long something will take until you’re pretty far down the path.
Even then, it might not be completely clear.
When working with people, I have at least two of those things set for me because most people reach out for help because they’ve already signed up for a race.
But that still doesn’t help me guarantee some sort of end result.
Now I don’t want it to sound like I’m saying you can’t possibly predict anything.
Of course you can.
But I’ve also been wrong in the past about races I thought were a lock.
Want to know why?
You don’t know what you don’t know.
Or in other words…
Shit happens.
All the time.
From people tripping and falling to aid stations being out of water to plants blooming and causing asthma attacks to crew members not showing up when they said they would to a multi-hour monsoon with hail…
Shit happens.
And the last thing I’m going to do is promise unrealistic expectations for something someone cares about.
I mean sure, it sounds great when you see “Click Here and after 3 months you can run a 50k and bench 225.”
(Real ad, by the way. I mean, does anybody buy this shit anymore…? )
But it’s just not real.
Some of the times I’ve been most confident about an outcome, I was wrong and the person didn’t even cross a finish line (see previous list of shit happens…).
And then some of the times an athlete and I weren’t even sure of a finish, they’d cruise through hours before the cutoff.
You just never know.
Now is that a great sales pitch?
No.
I’m well aware of that.
But I’d rather be honest.
Some people come to me with extremely unrealistic goals and we get to discuss what they actually mean.
For example, you’re probably not going to qualify for Boston on your first marathon.
You’re also probably not going to bench press what you did 35 years ago when you were lifting six days a week and your testosterone was a lot higher.
But some people also don’t give themselves enough credit.
“I ran a 3:03 marathon, do you think I can break 3 hours?”
“What was your fueling strategy like?”
“Oh, I didn’t really have one. I just took 2 or 3 gels and drank a couple of the water cups.”
“…Yea. I think you can break 3…”
I don’t know how long it will take to hit your goals.
I also don’t know if your current goals are realistic.
But if you’re serious about them and you’d like to chat with someone about the path forward, let me know.